Okajima Back in Boston

According to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, relief pitcher Hideki Okajima and the Boston Red Sox have agreed to a one year deal.  Okajima, who turned 35 last week, was non-tendered by the Sox earlier this year.  The specifics of the deal have not been published.

This isn't a good deal for the Red Sox.  Yes, a quality left-handed reliever was one of the last holes the Red Sox had to fill.  Even by signing Okajima, I don't think that the Sox have filled that hole.  Okajima has played four years in Boston and he has declined each year.  His ERA has gone from 2.22 in 2007, to 2.61 in 2008, to 3.39 in 2009, to  4.50 in 2010.  His batting average against (BAA) has gone from .202 in 2007, to .212 in 2008, to .242 in 2009, to a terrible .314. His batting average against (BAA) vs. lefties has gone from .236 in 2007, to .184 in 2008, to .167 in 2009, to .284 in 2010.  You get the picture.  Okajima has gotten worse the more teams have gotten to see him and his stuff.  Over the last four years the Red Sox have used him as more than just a lefty specialist, but that seems to be the only place that the Sox could put him.  Even that is a questionable move.  Yes, before this past season he pitched well against lefties, but his stuff was so bad in 2010 and it seemed like whenever he was brought into a game, inherited runners ended up scoring.  The Sox have been linked to lefty Brian Fuentes, with about 11 other teams, and he would be a much better left-handed option.  The Sox already had back up options too, with Felix Doubront and Rich Hill. I don't think Okajima would perform better than either of those guys.  Overall, questionable move by the Sox.  Even though the deal is only a year, and will probably be a minimal percentage of the Sox payroll, it seems like an unnecessary move by Boston.  I expect Okajima to continue his decline.    

Free Agents: The Best of the Rest

A bunch of good free agents have already been signed so far this offseason, but for teams that need help there are still some good names available.  Here are the top free agents remaining on the market and the teams they have been linked to...

According to MLB Trade Rumors here are the top 10 free agents remaining:
1. Adrian Beltre: Angels, A's, Rangers
2. Rafael Soriano: Angel's, Orioles, Yankees
3. Carl Pavano: Twins, Nationals, Mariners, Rangers
4. Jim Thome: Twins, Orioles, Rays, Blue Jays, Rangers
5. Vladimir Guerrero: Rangers, Orioles, Blue Jays, Rays
6. Manny Ramirez: Rays, Rangers
7. Derrek Lee: Orioles, Nationals
8. Andy Pettitte: Yankees, Retirement
9. Brian Fuentes: Eleven teams, Yankees and Red Sox included
10. Adam LaRoche: Orioles, Nationals

Now, more on the top three.  Beltre (and his agent Scott Boras) are asking for a long contract in the 5 year, $80 million range.  Considering his inconsistent performance in the past teams should be wary of paying him that much.  The Angels, considered the front runner for Beltre's services, have already balked at his demands and withdrawn their first offer.  However, the Halos weren't able to get Carl Crawford and could use some a bat to bolster their offense, so expect Beltre to find his way to Anaheim before the season starts.

Rafael Soriano was the best reliever on the free agent market not named Mariano Rivera (who wasn't really a free agent. Does anyone think he was going to sign somewhere other than New York?).  However, while other free agent relievers, such as Joaquin Benoit and Jesse Cain, are already signed, Soriano is still on the market.  In 2010, Soriano led the AL in saves with 45 and finished with a 1.73 ERA, so why is he still available?  Well, he wants a long contract (at least three year, but more likely a BJ Ryan-esque five years), but more and more teams have shied away from giving relievers long deals.  There is just too great a risk that a great season was an exception, not the norm.  Soriano was great in 2010, but he does have a long injury history.  He will most likely have to settle for a shorter contract.

Now that Cliff Lee is off the market, the best starting pitcher available is Carl Pavano, who has been linked to the Twins, Nationals, Mariners, and Rangers.  The Yankees need starting pitching, but we all know how Pavano's last go around in the Bronx went: it was a disaster.  The Rangers need pitching, but just signed Brandon Webb.  Pavano liked Minnesota and pitched well there last season, recording a 3.75 ERA to go with a 17-11 record.  The Twins liked having him and without him their rotation is much more suspect.  Expect Pavano to end up in the Twin Cities again in 2011.

Also, check out this article by ESPN's Jim Caple: Don't Blame Larry Walker for Ballpark.  He argues that Larry Walker should be highly considered for the Hall of Fame.

This Day in Baseball: Curt Flood and Free Agency

On December 29, 1969 the New York Times reported that outfielder Curt Flood would sue Major League Baseball over the reserve clause, which stipulated that when a player's contract expired the rights to that player were retained by the team to which he had been signed.  Flood was angry about an October trade from the Cardinals to the Phillies.  He wrote to Commissioner Bowie Kuhn, asking to be declared a free agent for the upcoming season.  This request was, of course, denied because of the reserve clause.  Flood subsequently filed a $1 million lawsuit against Major League Baseball, making the claim that Major League Baseball had violated antitrust laws.  Jackie Robinson and Hank Greenberg testified on Flood's behalf, but no current player took part in the case.  Eventually, the Supreme Court ruled in favor of Major League Baseball.  Even with this decision, the lawsuit helped pave the way for the free agency, which has completely changed baseball since its birth in December of 1975.  The offseason wouldn't be nearly as fun and interesting without free agency.

Is Pettitte Going to Retire?

According to Yankee first baseman Mark Teixeira, starting pitcher Andy Pettitte may be leaning towards retiring instead of coming back to help bolster the Yankees questionable starting rotation.  Teixeira has been trading text messages with Pettitte, who is 38 and has been contemplating retirement each offseason for the past few years.  Last season, he went 11-3 with a 3.28 ERA, but missed most of the second half of the season because of injury.  He made it back for the postseason, in which he went 1-1 with 2.57 ERA.  Over his 16 year career, Pettitte is 240-138 with a 3.88 career ERA and 2251 strikeouts.  He has been great in the postseason, compiling a 19-10 record through 42 playoff starts.

If Pettitte does indeed decide to retire, the Yankees could be in trouble.  Without Pettitte, the New York starting rotation currently consists of ace CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, AJ Burnett, Ivan Nova and Sergio Mitre.  Those five are far from the best in the league.  Sabathia is a legitimate ace and last season went 21-7 with a 3.18 and 197 stikeouts.  The rest of the rotation is a question mark. 

Hughes, while great during the first half of the season, struggled as his innings piled up and ended up with an ERA of 4.19.  Over his last ten starts during the regular season, Hughes posted a 4.91 ERA and limped into the postseason, where he posted a 6.32 ERA in three starts.  Can he adjust to more innings and actually be a solid number 2?  So far he hasn't shown that he is capable of doing that.

New pitching coach Larry Rothschild has his work cut out for him when it comes to AJ Burnett.  Burnett has some of the best pure stuff in the majors, but he has always struggled with mechanics and actually pitching well for an entire season.  2010 was a disaster, as Burnett posted a 5.26 ERA to go along with an equally dismal 10-15 record.  In 186.2 innings, Burnett only struck out 145 while walking 78.  Batters also hit .285 off of him.  Burnett could be a big key to the Yankees success in 2011.  If Rothschild can work wonders and make Burnett a reliable starter, the Yankees could be in much better shape than people think.

The last two spots in the rotation are, at the moment, going to be filled by relative unknowns Ivan Nova and Sergio Mitre.  Yeah, if I heard that my team's rotation was going to have those guys as four and five starters, I wouldn't be too happy.  Especially if my team's payroll was near $200 million every single season.  Last season, Nova and Mitre recorded respectable ERAs of 4.50 and 3.33, respectively, but they only combined for a total of 96 innings.  Who knows what they will do if they have to pitch more innings.  The most innings Mitre has pitched in one season is 149, with the Marlins in 2007.  He recorded a 4.65 ERA while pitching in the NL East that season, so just imagine what will happen if he has to start in he AL East.  2010 was Nova's first season, which makes his spot in the rotation even more questionable.

Pettitte's decision will affect New York's outlook on the 2011 season.  If he comes back, the Yankees will have a much stronger rotation.  If he doesn't, the Yankees will have a weak rotation to combat a revamped Boston team and a still dangerous Tampa Bay team in the AL East.

Best Second Baseman of All-Time

There a few second baseman who could be considered in the conversation of who is the best ever.  Rogers Hornsby was the best offensively, and has been even mentioned as possibly the greatest right-handed hitter of all-time.  Joe Morgan won five Gold Gloves and was the best second baseman of the post-WWII era.  However, neither of them is the best all-around second baseman to play the game.  That would be Eddie Collins.

Collins played 25 seasons, from 1906 to 1930, for the Philadelphia A's and the Chicago White Sox.  In 2826 games, he collected 3315 hits (10th all-time) and recorded a .333 average, good for 27th all-time.  He was only 5'9" and 170 pounds and didn't have much power, but he was one of the best base stealers of his time, tallying 741 by the time he retired (he is 8th all-time).  He was almost impossible to strikeout, doing so only 286 times from the time that strikeouts were first recorded in 1913 until he retired in 1930.

As good as Collins was offensively, he may have been better defensively.  He is considered the best defensive second baseman of his era, having led the league in fielding eight times, finished second seven times and finished third three times.  He had more assists, more chances and more putouts than any other second baseman in the history of the game.

Yes, Rogers Hornsby had a .358 career batting average.  He also didn't really care much about his defense.  Yes, Joe Morgan was a good all-around second baseman, but not quite as good all-around as Collins.  Morgan had 268 career homers and 689 stolen bases but only recorded a .271 lifetime average and 2517 hits.  Morgan only led second basemen twice in fielding percentage, only finished second four times, and only finished third twice.  Collins was also the first great World Series performer, hitting .328 in six World Series, help his teams win four.  Morgan, on the other hand, hit .182 in 181 postseason at-bats.  Collins was just the better all-around player, and is the best second baseman of all-time.

Webb Signs with Rangers

Pending a physical, pitcher Brandon Webb has signed a one year deal with the Texas Rangers.  Webb has only pitched four innings in the last two seasons because of arm problems.  He needed surgery in August of 2009 to clean out debris in his shoulder, but pitched a little bit in the Arizona Instructional League in 2010.  In the end, Webb decided between the Rangers and a mystery team from the NL, most likely the Reds.

This is a good signing by the Rangers.  The amount of the deal hasn't been specified, but it has been reported that the deal is incentive laden, which is good for Texas.  If Webb pitches well, Texas pays more but gets more production in the process.  If Webb sustains more injuries, Texas doesn't have to pay Webb as much money.  If Webb is healthy, this is a great signing by the Rangers.  From 2003 through 2008, Webb went 87-62 with a 3.24 ERA, 7.3 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9.  He won the NL Cy Young in 2006 (he went 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA), while finishing second in 2007 and 2008.  If he can continue to induce groundballs at his career rate of 62.4%, it will help him pitch well at Rangers Ballpark, which is a notorious homerun park.  If Webb can come close to his career numbers, the Rangers will have made a good upgrade to their rotation without spending much money.  Yes, they lost out on Cliff Lee, but they saved a lot of money in the process.  If reports are correct that Webb is indeed progressing well and preparing for Spring Training as he normally would, the Rangers probably are getting more bang for the buck than they would have with Cliff Lee (if Webb can stay healthy).  

Who Would I Vote For? The 2011 Hall of Fame Ballot

First, if you want to check out the entire 2011 HOF ballot, here’s the link.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2011.shtml

Every actual Hall of Fame voter gets to vote for up to ten players on their ballot.  Here are the guys I would vote for, in no particular order... if I actually had a ballot.

Barry Larkin- He was the best shortstop in the NL in the 1990s, winning three gold gloves (’94-’96) and the 1995 MVP award.  In 1996, he became the first shortstop to join the 30/30 club (30 stolen bases and homers).  He was selected to 12 All-Star games throughout his career.

G	AB	H	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	SLG	OBP
2180	7937	2340	198	960	379	.295	.444	.371

Fred McGriff- A five time all-star selection, McGriff slugged 493 homers during his 19 year career.  He hit 30 or more homers for a record five different teams, the Blue Jays, Padres, Braves, Devil Rays and Cubs.  He wasn’t a great defensive first baseman, but the guy hit the ball pretty damn well.

G	AB	H	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	SLG	OBP
2460	8757	2490	493	1550	72	.284	.509	.377

Larry Walker- Walker was a five time all-star during his 17 year career.  He won seven Gold Gloves and the 1997 NL MVP award.  In his full Major League seasons, he averaged 24 homers and 82 RBI per season.

G	AB	H	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	SLG	OBP
1988	6907	2160	383	1311	230	.313	.565	.400

Jeff Bagwell- Bagwell was a four time all-star selection during his 15 year career.  He also won the 1991 Rookie of the Year and in 1994, won both a Gold Glove Award and the MVP award.  In that 1994 season, which was shortened by the players’ strike, Bagwell hit 39 homers and had 116 RBIs in only 110 games.  He averaged 30 home runs and 102 RBI per season during his career.

G	AB	H	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	SLG	OBP
2150	7797	2314	449	1529	202	.297	.540	.408

Roberto Alomar- Alomar was probably the best second baseman of his generation.  He hit over .320 five times during his 17 year career, while also stealing more than 40 bases four times.  Even as a good offensive player, he was best known for his defense.  He won 10 Gold Glove awards and his .984 fielding percentage is the highest ever for an American League second basemen.

G	AB	H	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	SLG	OBP
2379	9073	2724	210	1134	474	.300	.443	.371

Bert Blyleven- He was almost elected to the HOF last year, getting 74.2% of the vote (falling 0.8% short).  He had one of the best curveballs of his era and has the most strikeouts of any pitcher not in the Hall of Fame.

Wins	Losses	W-L%	ERA	IP	SO	BB	WHIP
287	250	.534	3.31	4970	3701	1322	1.198

Lee Smith- There aren’t many closers in the Hall of Fame, but that’s because the closer is a relatively new phenomenon.  Smith is third on the all-time saves list with 478, behind only Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera (future HOFs).

Wins	Losses	W-L%	ERA	IP	SO	BB	WHIP	SV
71	92	.436	3.03	1289.1	1251	486	1.256	478

John Franco- Like Smith, Franco was a great closer.  He is fourth, right behind Smith, on the all-time saves list with 424.

Wins	Losses	W-L%	ERA	IP	SO	BB	WHIP	SV
90	87	.508	2.89	1245.2	975	495	1.333	424

Those are only eight guys I would vote for.  The others just don’t have the numbers or have been associated with steroids in some way (Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Juan Gonzalez).